by Chas Bonner
That sounds like an absolute oxymoron---DECREASING INCREASES???
But it is true. During the “Green Revolution” of American Agriculture from 1960-1980, yields of primary grains like wheat, barley, rice, corn saw increases of 5%+ per year. Even 10% increases were not uncommon.
However, today we are seeing real changes in rates of increase. Most crop yields are now averaging 1-2% annual increase which should not surprise us since improvements tend to slow until a new breakout is achieved.
Then the question becomes “When will we see new breakouts?” For a long time, it was believed that genetically modified foods would be the next breakout. First, there is real opposition in many cultures and populations of anything genetically modified, and in the European Union, such foods were outlawed for years. Second, the expected breakouts often did not materialize. For instance, Monsanto developed a new corn seed, SmartStax which has seen minimal productivity increases over the last decade.
Furthermore, as more and more arable land is lost through desertification, water-logging, urbanization, etc., and as water becomes more difficult to find and exploit, we could actually see a world-wide reduction of yields.
Our hope is that the expectation of 9 Billion mouths to feed by 2050 proves incorrect. At least for all of us in agriculture, the long-term future bodes well, despite any hiccups along the way.
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