Much of agriculture hinges on hedging your bets against the weather . . the unpredictable, harsh, irrational but oftentimes mild weather. Timing is essential in farming and having the right weather at the right time impacts the costs for fuel, fertilizer, pesticide and seed. Having the wrong weather at the wrong time can be even more devastating. Everything from planting crops to harvesting crops depends on the daily weather cycle and extended forecasts.
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) track the temperature of the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean typically over a three to five month time frame. This data is analyzed and used to predict the occurrence of a La Niña or El Niño weather event. The water temperatures tend to be warmer than normal during an El Nino event and cooler than normal during a La Niña event. These variations of temperatures cause noticeable weather impacts in the United States, which vary from season to season. History shows that El Niño and La Niña systems alternate through the years although the length of each is certainly variable.
A La Niña system developed in mid 2007 and lasted until early 2009 followed by an El Niño system May 2009 through April 2010. The warmer and cooler trends directly relate to the North central states, so the warmer El Niño creates the opposite effect of a cooler winter in the Southeast and Southwest. Therefore a La Niña event, which we are currently experiencing in Arizona, holds true as the early winter of 2010 has shown to have warmer than normal temperatures, and a wetter summer.
Other predictors indicate a change in the coming months as the “real” winter storms arrive resulting in a delayed planting season in March and April 2011 due to frozen soil conditions. March is expected to be a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures and winter storms across North America. However, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts for the Western states to see a “kinder and gentler” 2010-2011 winter overall compared to the winter of 2009-2010.
Whether the warm continues or the cold stays put, as we have seen time and time again in the agricultural industry . . . it all depends on the weather.
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