by Chas Bonner
Planning in any business is tough, but in agriculture it might be worse. In most businesses, weather and water are not real factors, but in farming, they are critical. Generally, we can predict long-term demand for products and even worldwide or regional supply, but for a specific farm, there are many variables.
At least the worldwide prediction for farming is excellent in the long run, primarily because of continued population explosions, reduced acreage in many parts of the world, and slowing productivity gains. Furthermore, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, an agency of the United Nations, is predicting continued high pricing for agricultural commodities because of years of under-investment in agriculture. In 1979, of all UN aid distributed to nations around the world, 18% went to agriculture to improve production; by 2010 that aid declined to 4.3% for agriculture. Most aid is in the form of low interest loans and grants to developing countries to improve farm output.
With population expectations increasing another 50% by 2050, and with larger and larger urban focus, rural development (farming) loses out. Because middle classes in those urban areas are fast-growing, the UN expects food production must increase 70% while population increases 50% because that middle class urban population will be demanding more protein---meat and dairy, both big users of farm inputs.
Given the expected worldwide demand for food, it is safe to assume prices must rise and remain relatively high. Compounding the problem is farming input costs---water, fertilizer, labor, and changing weather patterns.
The worldwide planning exercise is fairly simple, although the solutions are not. Now our readers must proceed to the plans of what will affect your specific acreage, and what can you do to maximize the positive, minimize the negative? At least you can project strong food demand well into the future.
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